Odin's spear did not miss. Three scorecards: who is winning and who is not, whether the recovery fund was ever put to work, and which job on the street right now is the one to go after.
Never split by territory and never by business agent. A contractor's book is his whole book. 178 priced bids are on file; the roster is not considered settled until 400.
UNRESOLVED. 0 of 4 shops have 25 or more priced bids. Closest 4: Marden Electric 22, Copperline Contractors 21, Halloran Systems 19, Kestrel Power 18. About 20 more priced bids closes it.
The gate counts priced bids per shop, not shops priced. Four shops must each carry 25 priced bids before this page prints a single name. Measured, not assumed: the looser rule named a contractor to a business manager and was wrong about a third of the time at thirty rows.
| # | Signatory contractor | Bids | Won | Lost | Win rate | Median gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Ardmore Circuit | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Bellweather Power | 14 | 2 | 12 | 14 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Brandt & Sons Electric | 14 | 3 | 11 | 14 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Copperline Contractors | 21 | 3 | 18 | 21 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Halloran Systems | 20 | 5 | 15 | 19 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Ironvale Electric | 17 | 3 | 14 | 17 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Kestrel Power | 18 | 7 | 11 | 18 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Marden Electric | 22 | 2 | 20 | 22 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Northgate Electrical | 13 | 2 | 11 | 13 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Penrose Electrical | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Quarry Ridge Electric | 13 | 3 | 10 | 13 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Sutton Line Electric | 15 | 4 | 11 | 15 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
| — | Voss Brothers Electric | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank | |
Nobody on this page is ranked low. Nobody is ranked at all, because the book is not deep enough yet to rank anyone honestly. Munin will not put a number beside a name it cannot stand behind. Silence with a distance on it is this page working. A name it cannot defend is this page lying.
That last figure is the one that gets misread in a hall. Hours waived on a job the local loses are never paid out. All in, and if you lose you keep your chips.
Jobs already listed and not yet bid, priced against what this territory has actually been losing by, and ranked by what they give back: hours of paid work for the members per hour on which the funds forgo their contribution. Two different hours. The member works and is paid for every one of them; the funds collect on all but the waived ones. Probability, not possibility.
| Job | Project | Territory | Hours of work | Hours to close | Give or take | Work won per hour waived | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J-1091 | Wexford Water Treatment Upgrade | Montgomery | 1,934 | 304 | 237 to 691 12 to 36% of the job | 6.4 | coverable |
| J-1034 | Elmglen Water Treatment Upgrade | Philadelphia | 6,716 | 1,052 | 706 to 1,980 11 to 29% of the job | 6.4 | coverable |
| J-1037 | Colebrook Laboratory Renovation | Chester | 2,463 | 386 | 309 to 1,044 13 to 42% of the job | 6.4 | coverable |
| J-1083 | Marlow High School Addition | Chester | 10,865 | 1,733 | 1,384 to 4,678 13 to 43% of the job | 6.3 | coverable |
| J-1106 | Hartwell Transit Substation | Philadelphia | 2,187 | 349 | 234 to 656 11 to 30% of the job | 6.3 | coverable |
| J-1068 | Colebrook Warehouse Fit-Out | Delaware | 8,167 | 1,338 | 517 to 2,962 6 to 36% of the job | 6.1 | coverable |
| J-1069 | Fenwick Cold Storage Facility | Chester | 1,269 | 207 | 165 to 558 13 to 44% of the job | 6.1 | coverable |
| J-1099 | Kingsbridge Data Hall Buildout | Montgomery | 8,310 | 1,360 | 1,062 to 3,097 13 to 37% of the job | 6.1 | coverable |
| J-1009 | Colebrook Municipal Garage | Chester | 11,969 | 1,959 | 1,565 to 5,289 13 to 44% of the job | 6.1 | coverable |
| J-1080 | Kingsbridge High School Addition | Chester | 7,609 | 1,360 | 1,087 to 3,673 14 to 48% of the job | 5.6 | coverable |
| J-1112 | Kingsbridge Distribution Center | Chester | 6,952 | 1,322 | 1,056 to 3,569 15 to 51% of the job | 5.3 | coverable |
| J-1043 | Ashby Community College Lab | Berks | 7,543 | 1,417 | 1,025 to 2,974 14 to 39% of the job | 5.3 | coverable |
| J-1147 | Pennfield Municipal Garage | Chester | 2,401 | 457 | 365 to 1,233 15 to 51% of the job | 5.3 | coverable |
| J-1079 | Ashby High School Addition | Bucks | 815 | 159 | 97 to 695 12 to 85% of the job | 5.1 | coverable |
| J-1050 | Colebrook Data Hall Buildout | Bucks | 11,088 | 2,209 | 1,345 to 9,685 12 to 87% of the job | 5.0 | coverable |
| J-1184 | Wexford Water Treatment Upgrade | Bucks | 5,507 | 1,116 | 680 to 4,893 12 to 89% of the job | 4.9 | coverable |
| J-1048 | Fenwick Distribution Center | Bucks | 6,185 | 1,305 | 794 to 5,721 13 to 92% of the job | 4.7 | coverable |
| J-1019 | Sandbrook Laboratory Renovation | Bucks | 3,936 | 848 | 516 to 3,718 13 to 94% of the job | 4.6 | coverable |
| J-3900 | Wexford Warehouse Fit-Out | Lehigh | $740,000 | 3 priced losses in this territory, 9 needed | |||
The verdict is only the line that survived measurement: winnable on a waiver, or not. How much of the job it eats is printed as a range, not as a word. Measured Sept 22, 2026: calling a job “steep” off a median was wrong 35.5% of the time on nine priced losses and was still wrong 19.3% of the time on sixty, because the quarter-of-the-job line sits right on top of where a local actually loses. The verdict underneath it was wrong 0.0% of the time from nine losses up. The threshold was never the problem. The word was, and it is gone.
This local has put 2,640 hours of contributions at risk so far. Spent in this order, those same hours bring back 15,384 hours of work.
| # | Project | Territory | Hours at risk | Hours of work | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wexford Water Treatment Upgrade | Montgomery | 304 | 1,934 | 6.4 |
| 2 | Elmglen Water Treatment Upgrade | Philadelphia | 1,052 | 6,716 | 6.4 |
| 3 | Colebrook Laboratory Renovation | Chester | 386 | 2,463 | 6.4 |
| 4 | Hartwell Transit Substation | Philadelphia | 349 | 2,187 | 6.3 |
| 5 | Fenwick Cold Storage Facility | Chester | 207 | 1,269 | 6.1 |
| 6 | Ashby High School Addition | Bucks | 159 | 815 | 5.1 |
Lehigh is new on the books. Three priced losses is not a pattern, so Munin projects nothing there and says why.