Munin · Three scorecards
Electricians Local XXX  ·  Simulated

Gungnir

Odin's spear did not miss. Three scorecards: who is winning and who is not, whether the recovery fund was ever put to work, and which job on the street right now is the one to go after.

Scorecard one

Standings, every signatory, every territory

Never split by territory and never by business agent. A contractor's book is his whole book. 178 priced bids are on file; the roster is not considered settled until 400.

Unresolved

UNRESOLVED. 0 of 4 shops have 25 or more priced bids. Closest 4: Marden Electric 22, Copperline Contractors 21, Halloran Systems 19, Kestrel Power 18. About 20 more priced bids closes it.

The gate counts priced bids per shop, not shops priced. Four shops must each carry 25 priced bids before this page prints a single name. Measured, not assumed: the looser rule named a contractor to a business manager and was wrong about a third of the time at thirty rows.

#Signatory contractorBids WonLostWin rate Median gap
—Ardmore Circuit5145 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Bellweather Power1421214 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Brandt & Sons Electric1431114 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Copperline Contractors2131821 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Halloran Systems2051519 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Ironvale Electric1731417 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Kestrel Power1871118 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Marden Electric2222022 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Northgate Electrical1321113 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Penrose Electrical3033 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Quarry Ridge Electric1331013 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Sutton Line Electric1541115 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank
—Voss Brothers Electric4044 priced bids on file, 25 needed to rank

Nobody on this page is ranked low. Nobody is ranked at all, because the book is not deep enough yet to rank anyone honestly. Munin will not put a number beside a name it cannot stand behind. Silence with a distance on it is this page working. A name it cannot defend is this page lying.

Scorecard two

Did the job recovery fund get used, and did it work

Jobs with hours waived
14
win rate 14.3%
Jobs with nothing waived
165
win rate 20.0%
Hours waived on jobs that were lost
2,080
cost the funds nothing, because nobody won

That last figure is the one that gets misread in a hall. Hours waived on a job the local loses are never paid out. All in, and if you lose you keep your chips.

Scorecard three

The next winnable job

Jobs already listed and not yet bid, priced against what this territory has actually been losing by, and ranked by what they give back: hours of paid work for the members per hour on which the funds forgo their contribution. Two different hours. The member works and is paid for every one of them; the funds collect on all but the waived ones. Probability, not possibility.

JobProjectTerritory Hours of workHours to closeGive or take Work won per hour waivedVerdict
J-1091Wexford Water Treatment UpgradeMontgomery1,934304237 to 691
12 to 36% of the job
6.4coverable
J-1034Elmglen Water Treatment UpgradePhiladelphia6,7161,052706 to 1,980
11 to 29% of the job
6.4coverable
J-1037Colebrook Laboratory RenovationChester2,463386309 to 1,044
13 to 42% of the job
6.4coverable
J-1083Marlow High School AdditionChester10,8651,7331,384 to 4,678
13 to 43% of the job
6.3coverable
J-1106Hartwell Transit SubstationPhiladelphia2,187349234 to 656
11 to 30% of the job
6.3coverable
J-1068Colebrook Warehouse Fit-OutDelaware8,1671,338517 to 2,962
6 to 36% of the job
6.1coverable
J-1069Fenwick Cold Storage FacilityChester1,269207165 to 558
13 to 44% of the job
6.1coverable
J-1099Kingsbridge Data Hall BuildoutMontgomery8,3101,3601,062 to 3,097
13 to 37% of the job
6.1coverable
J-1009Colebrook Municipal GarageChester11,9691,9591,565 to 5,289
13 to 44% of the job
6.1coverable
J-1080Kingsbridge High School AdditionChester7,6091,3601,087 to 3,673
14 to 48% of the job
5.6coverable
J-1112Kingsbridge Distribution CenterChester6,9521,3221,056 to 3,569
15 to 51% of the job
5.3coverable
J-1043Ashby Community College LabBerks7,5431,4171,025 to 2,974
14 to 39% of the job
5.3coverable
J-1147Pennfield Municipal GarageChester2,401457365 to 1,233
15 to 51% of the job
5.3coverable
J-1079Ashby High School AdditionBucks81515997 to 695
12 to 85% of the job
5.1coverable
J-1050Colebrook Data Hall BuildoutBucks11,0882,2091,345 to 9,685
12 to 87% of the job
5.0coverable
J-1184Wexford Water Treatment UpgradeBucks5,5071,116680 to 4,893
12 to 89% of the job
4.9coverable
J-1048Fenwick Distribution CenterBucks6,1851,305794 to 5,721
13 to 92% of the job
4.7coverable
J-1019Sandbrook Laboratory RenovationBucks3,936848516 to 3,718
13 to 94% of the job
4.6coverable
J-3900Wexford Warehouse Fit-OutLehigh$740,0003 priced losses in this territory, 9 needed

The verdict is only the line that survived measurement: winnable on a waiver, or not. How much of the job it eats is printed as a range, not as a word. Measured Sept 22, 2026: calling a job “steep” off a median was wrong 35.5% of the time on nine priced losses and was still wrong 19.3% of the time on sixty, because the quarter-of-the-job line sits right on top of where a local actually loses. The verdict underneath it was wrong 0.0% of the time from nine losses up. The threshold was never the problem. The word was, and it is gone.

Where the hours go first

This local has put 2,640 hours of contributions at risk so far. Spent in this order, those same hours bring back 15,384 hours of work.

#ProjectTerritory Hours at riskHours of workReturn
1Wexford Water Treatment UpgradeMontgomery3041,9346.4
2Elmglen Water Treatment UpgradePhiladelphia1,0526,7166.4
3Colebrook Laboratory RenovationChester3862,4636.4
4Hartwell Transit SubstationPhiladelphia3492,1876.3
5Fenwick Cold Storage FacilityChester2071,2696.1
6Ashby High School AdditionBucks1598155.1

Lehigh is new on the books. Three priced losses is not a pattern, so Munin projects nothing there and says why.